In 2047, Pakistan will be a hundred years old nation. The course of the country’s development has not been very enviable by any standards till now. The latest MDGs statistics suggest that a sizeable portion of the global poor live in Pakistan, a huge number of young people are unemployed, more than 25 million children are out of schools, water is fast depleting, while the scourge of natural calamities is hitting hard on the physical and social structures of the country. For over two decades, conflicts, violence and terrorisms have also damaged the confidence of the society and nurtured the culture of fear and insecurity. With about 30 years left to reach the centennial milestone, the policy makers and other stakeholders need to start thinking about the long term goals and objectives of this nation which has already become the world’s 8th most populous country.
Pakistan needs to be much more methodical about development of the country than it has been in the past to anchor its short and medium term development actions. Presently, we so have GOP’s Vision 2025 and forthcoming Sustainable Development Goals (2015-2030) to steer the progress of the country to deliver welfare and prosperity. Building upon evidence, peoples’ aspirations, national strategies and international development goals, LEAD Pakistan plans to develop long-term development pathways for key sectors so that the country may be framed as a High Income Country in 2047 with strong indicators of human and sustainable development. Once matured, these development scenarios will enlighten GOP’s development planning and course of action.
Under this initiative the first task is to tabulate data on development patterns since 1947 and make future Business as Usual (BAU) projections. This data collection exercise will yield economic, political, and social pathways to the 2047 world. Various models will be applied to build upon BAU baseline to visualize the shape of Pakistan’s progress up to 2047. LEAD Pakistan has been collecting data, information and opinions for the last few months to conduct scenario analyses. LEAD team has planned to collect historical data in selected development areas and compile Situation Reports explaining BAU scenarios for development patterns. Initially proposed areas are:
- Income & Employment
- Climate Change
The exploratory phase of this initiative will also involve collection of opinions and views from the youth, academia, fellows, and eminent persons to have insights on future of Pakistan when it will be 100 years old. The exercise may also involve e-surveys, face to face interviews, discussion and contribute using other electronic means.
The data and opinions of various sections of society will also feed into LEAD Pakistan’s projects/ programmes to make it relevant to the development trajectories of Pakistan. The 2047 initiative is also closely linked to another new initiative that tracks SDGs during the period of 2015-2030.