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What is climate change?
A change of climate that is directly or indirectly related
to human activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability over comparable time periods.
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What changes will occur in the temperature?
The most recent scientific assessment by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates
that the global averaged surface temperature on Earth will
increase by 1 to 3.5°C (about 2 to 6°F) by the year 2100,
with an associated rise in sea level of 15 to 95 cm (about 6
to 37 inches).
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A small example about climate change:
What would you choose if you were given the choice between a
30 carat diamond and cylinder of air that can add next 10
minutes to your life on earth? It’s not a million dollar
question because the answer is simple.
Why is it that we presently don’t feel that the air is worth
more than all the diamonds on earth? It’s a distortion of
the market mechanism. Free market economy values the rarest
of the resources and not the most valuable. Many a times in
the past we have relied on pricing mechanisms to adjust
demand to available supply. At times cheaper alternatives
were developed because of formidable costs. In all such
cases mankind survived because they had alternatives and
their survival didn’t depend on either of them.
What if their survival did depend on one of such commodities
and there was no alternative? This is a situation we foresee
when we ignore the most valued natural resources that human
beings survive on (air, water, soil). These resources are
depleting fast and more so because of the effects of Climate
Change.
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What are the effects and impacts of climate change?
There is growing global consensus that climate change is
humankind’s greatest threat in modern times and is likely to
have profound consequences for socio-economic sectors such
as health, food production, energy consumption and security
and natural resource management.
The harmful impacts of this global warming effect are
already manifesting themselves around the world in the form
of extreme weather events like storms, tornadoes, floods and
droughts, all of which have been mounting in frequency and
intensity. As a result, the
world today suffers around 400-500 natural disasters on
average in a year, up from 125 in the 1980s (Disaster
Risk Reduction: Global Review 2007).
According to the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report, the evidence
of predicted impacts of climate change is slowly unfolding.
Crop yield growth rates are declining in most parts of the
world, partially as a consequence of rising temperatures,
while increases in prevalence of climate-induced diseases
have also been recorded. There is also evidence of
accelerating recession of most glaciers on Earth, rainfall
variability and changes in marine ecosystems. Another
serious threat arising from climate change is to freshwater
availability which is projected to decline especially in
large river basins and adversely affect more than a billion
people by the 2050s
Climate change is also likely to have wide-ranging and
mostly adverse impacts on human health. The projected
increase in the duration and frequency of heat waves is
expected to increase mortality rates as a result of heat
stress, especially in areas where people are not equipped to
deal with warmer temperatures. To a lesser extent, increases
in winter temperatures in high latitudes could lead to
decreases in mortality rates. Climate change is also
expected to lead to increases in the potential transmission
of vector borne diseases, including malaria, dengue, and
yellow fever, extending the range of organisms such as
insects that carry these diseases into the temperate zone,
including parts of the United States, Europe, and Asia.
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The observed effects of global warming so far are:
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Increase in the mean global sea level (1-2mm per year over
the last century);
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Worldwide retreat of glaciers;
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Decrease in snow cover and thawing of permafrost;
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Shifts of plant and animal ranges;
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Earlier flowering of plants;
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Birds breeding seasons and emergence of insects;
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Increased events of coral bleaching.
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What does adaptation to climate change mean?
Adaptation refers to actions intended to safeguard, people,
communities, businesses and a country against the
vulnerabilities and effects of anticipated or actual climate
change. Adaptation aims to allow vulnerable groups to adjust
and live with the changes in the environment and economy
that will be caused due to climate change.
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What does mitigating climate change mean?
Mitigation means taking actions to tackle the causes of
climate change. In other words, it means taking measures to
reduce the emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) into the
atmosphere and halting the global warming trend.
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How is Pakistan affected by climate change?
Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse
Gas (GHG) emissions, but remains severely impacted by the
negative effects of climate change by the following ways:
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Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase
flooding will affect water resources within the next two
to three decades. This will be followed by decreased
river flows over time as glaciers recede.
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Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease
which will lead to biodiversity loss and reduce
availability of freshwater for the population.
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Coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of
Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to increased
flooding from the sea and in some cases, the rivers.
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Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate
change is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan
which in turn will affect livelihoods and food
production. Combining the decreased yields with the
current rapid population growth and urbanization in the
country, the risk of hunger and food security will
remain high.
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Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases
primarily associated with floods and droughts are
expected to rise. Increases in coastal water
temperatures would exacerbate the abundance of cholera.
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The impact of climate change will also aggravate the
existing social inequalities of resource use and
intensify social factors leading to instability,
conflicts, displacement of people and changes in
migration patterns.
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Why can't ecosystems just adapt?
Climate change is not a new influence on the biosphere, so
why can't ecosystems just adapt without significant effects
on their form or productivity? There are three basic
reasons.
First, the rate of global climate change is projected to be
more rapid than any to have occurred in the last 10,000
years.
Second, humans have altered the structure of many of the
world's ecosystems. They have cut down forests, plowed
soils, used rangelands to graze their domesticated animals,
introduced non-native species to many regions and
intensively fished lakes, rivers and oceans. These
relatively changes in the structure of the world's
ecosystems have made them less resilient to automatically
adapt to climate change.
Third, pollution, as well as other indirect effects of the
utilization of natural resources, has also increased since
the beginning of the industrial revolution.
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Climate change and developing countries:
Developing countries are the least responsible for climate
change: The world’s least developed countries contribute
only 10 percent of annual global carbon dioxide emissions.
However, the geographical location and socio-economic
fragility of most of the developing makes them more
vulnerable to the environmental, social and economic
ramifications of climate change and the lack of resources
and capabilities to adapt to the changes will worsen the
situation.
Moreover, people who live in poverty around the world will
be hardest hit by climate change. This is because the poor
are more dependent on natural resources and have less of an
ability to adapt to a changing climate.
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What countries are most at risk from
climate related threats
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What measures can be taken to cope with climate
change?
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Increasing access to high quality information about the
impacts of climate change
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Improving technological responses by setting in place
early warning systems and information systems to enhance
disaster preparedness
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Practicing energy efficiency through changes in
individual lifestyles and businesses
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Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate
change through infra-structural changes
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Promoting good governance and responsible policy by
integrating risk management and adaptation
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Developing new and innovative farm production practices,
including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques
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Improving forest management and biodiversity
conservation
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Empowering communities and local stakeholders so that
they participate actively in vulnerability assessment
and implementation of adaptation
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Mainstreaming climate change into development planning
at all scales, levels and sectors
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